But experts said the prospect of meaningful talks remained remote. Ukraine, they say, will seek to make more gains on the battlefield before going to the negotiating table, while Russia hopes the winter’s impact on Ukraine’s allies will fracture international support for Kyiv and weaken its resolve. “It makes sense to wait now — Ukrainian forces now have momentum, they are advancing further into Kherson, and that progress will set the scene and conditions for any discussion,” said William Taylor, former US ambassador to Ukraine and vice president. at the US Institute of Peace. On Friday, the Russian army officially completed its retreat from the strategic southern city of Kherson, withdrawing to the east side of the Dnieper river, reversing its biggest military achievement since the start of the war. The southern regional capital was the only one occupied throughout the conflict. “The problem with negotiations now is that Russia has not shown any serious proposals,” said Steven Pifer, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center on the US and Europe. “The Russians’ demands have escalated, even as they have suffered greater losses on the ground,” said Pifer, who served as U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 1998 to 2000. Despite the loss of territory, Russia still insists that Kherson is Russian land, following its widely condemned and unrecognized annexations of four Ukrainian regions in September. “There can be no negotiations until Russia becomes more realistic and takes into account the reality of the battlefield,” he said.
“Designed to maintain an alliance”
The annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson marked a turning point in Zelensky’s position towards the talks. After Russia’s move, he signed a decree ruling out any possibility of negotiations with Putin. “We are ready for dialogue with Russia, but with a different president,” he said on October 4. Zelensky had made a clear departure from a softer position adopted in March, when he had called for Russian troops to withdraw to the border ahead of the invasion in February. But after the annexation move, he toughened the terms, asking the Russians to withdraw from the entire country – including Crimea and eastern Donbas. His tone hardened as Ukrainian troops enjoyed more success on the battlefield until his decree was issued. Moscow’s troops had failed to reach the capital, Kyiv, and Ukrainian forces were regaining swaths of territory in the northeast. Further eroding confidence in the talks was the emergence of atrocities committed against Ukrainian civilians allegedly at the hands of Russian occupation forces. On Monday, however, Zelensky listed five conditions for sitting at the table, including restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity, prosecuting war crimes and compensating for losses. These are not new demands from Zelensky, but this time, there was no mention of the previous veto during the conversation with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. That somewhat soft stance came after a Washington Post report suggested that US officials want Ukraine to signal an opening to talks, but not necessarily start them. Western leaders seem to be growing weary of growing popular discontent. Rising energy bills and spiraling inflation, partly consequences of the conflict, are creating turmoil. “It’s important to the Americans that Ukraine has a reasonable position, and the one that Zelensky described is designed to preserve that alliance,” Taylor said. “But American officials are not pushing or suggesting that the Ukrainians move toward negotiations,” he added. A man walks his bicycle on the street of Shiversk, a city in eastern Ukraine that was hit by Russian forces [Bulent Kilic/AFP]
Crimea, red line?
Looking ahead, the fate of the Kherson region could determine how quickly the negotiations materialize, said Anatol Lieven, director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute. Ukraine’s southern region connects the mainland with Russian-annexed Crimea. The small isthmus connecting the peninsula to Ukraine has become a key land corridor used to supply Russian troops. “If Ukraine breaks through and seizes not only the city, but the province of Kherson east of the Dnieper, the hidden message of [US President Joe] The Biden administration is that they have to stop and accept the ceasefire,” Lieven said. This is because moving beyond Kherson, Lieven said, would be seen as a threat to Crimea, with significant consequences. “There are strong indications that if Ukraine tries to seize Crimea, then the use of nuclear weapons by Russia is very high – through a scale of escalation,” he said. Pifer disagreed, arguing that the US would support Ukraine trying to expel an invading force. However, Pifer noted, the Ukrainian military would prefer to target targets other than Crimea, which is militarily difficult to capture but easy to defend given how narrow the stretch of land that connects the peninsula to the mainland is. country – about five to seven kilometers (three to four miles) wide. “Also, I don’t think the US is saying not to do things because of nuclear concerns. The threat of nuclear weapons is serious, Putin is not backing down, but Putin also wants a nuclear war,” Pifer added. Ukrainian soldiers fire an M-46 machine gun on the front line [Iryna Rybakova/Press Service of the 93rd Independent Kholodnyi Yar Mechanised Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces/Handout via Reuters]
A tale of two strategies
It is too early to talk about negotiations, as both sides have too much to gain or lose, said Raphael Los, a security expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations. After Russia’s retreat this week from the city of Kherson, Ukrainians are plotting how to continue their goal of ejecting Moscow’s forces from the entire nation. “It is not unreasonable that other fronts, such as Kharkiv and Kherson, collapse as well,” Los added, pointing to possible attacks that would put pressure on Crimea and make progress in northeastern Donbas. Kyiv should also consider its domestic context. After months of war and suffering, more than 85 percent of Ukrainians insist their nation should continue fighting instead of negotiating, according to a recent survey. Meanwhile, “Russia relies more on a political, rather than a military, strategy” and is likely to take advantage of the winter season to foment unrest in Europe and undermine Western support that has been fundamental to Kiev’s counteroffensive, said Los. As temperatures drop, Russia hopes more people will flee Ukraine to neighboring countries, putting pressure on Europe. In addition, the economic and energy crisis could worsen if Moscow further weaponizes the flow of natural gas to Europe or threatens to undermine undersea cables and pipeline connections, Los said. “Once the winter is over, there will be a reassessment of the situation.”
