Metin Atkas | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images Russia’s withdrawal from a large chunk of Kherson in southern Ukraine is likely to pose risks to both sides of the war, according to analysts, who said the battle for the region is “not over”. Russia said on Thursday that its forces had begun withdrawing from the west bank of the Dnipro River that bisects the Kherson region, while Ukraine said that its forces had already advanced four miles and liberated 12 settlements in the area since Wednesday – on that top Russian military officials announced that they would withdraw Russian troops from the city of Kherson and the surrounding area and return to defensive positions on the other side of the river. Ukraine’s government has said it is skeptical of Russia’s withdrawal, although its forces on the ground appeared on Thursday to seize the opportunity to target large groups of Russian troops preparing to withdraw. A Ukrainian official in Kherson said that as Russian forces moved their equipment to the east bank of the river, “we are destroying it.” Damaged parts of the city of Velyka Oleksandrivka, Kherson region, on October 24, 2022. Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images Analysts say the withdrawal from Kherson is likely to pose major challenges for both the Russians – as they withdraw from the region – and Ukrainian troops as they try to retake the city of Kherson and the surrounding area. “The battle for the Kherson is not over, but Russian forces have entered a new phase – prioritizing the withdrawal of their forces across the river and delaying Ukrainian forces, rather than seeking to stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive altogether.” analysts at the Study of War Institute noted on Wednesday afternoon. The institute said it would take some time for the entire Russian contingent to withdraw from the Dnipro, and it was unclear whether Russian forces would be able to pull out in a relatively good order under pressure from Ukraine. Britain’s Ministry of Defense agreed that the withdrawal was likely to be fraught with difficulties, with Ukrainian forces trying to recapture and liberate the Russian-held part of the Kherson also facing risks in the effort. “During the retreat, Russian forces destroyed several bridges and likely planted mines to slow down and delay the advance of Ukrainian forces,” the ministry said in a Twitter briefing on Thursday. For Russia, the lack of passable bridges was likely to be a problem, he added: “With limited crossing points, Russian forces will be vulnerable to crossing the Dnipro River. It is likely that the withdrawal will take place over several days with defensive positions and artillery fire covering withdrawal forces”.
The fighting is intensifying
There were already signs on Thursday that fighting was intensifying in Kherson as Russian troops withdrew. Serhiy Khlan, a member of the Kherson regional council, said on Facebook that a large buildup of Russian troops was blown up in Kherson’s Kakhovka. Another Ukrainian official noted that Russia had not asked Ukraine to create a “green corridor,” or safe route, for Russia to withdraw its troops from Kherson safely. Separately, Ukraine’s southern command unit said today that its forces attacked “two strongholds of the Russian occupiers, an enemy equipment column and an ammunition depot” on Thursday as enemy forces build up in the area. “As a result of the attacks, Ukrainian defenders eliminated 125 invaders, three enemy tanks, five units of armored vehicles and an ammunition depot in the Berislav region,” he added. Berislav is on the river from Kherson, on the same west bank of the river – the bank from which the Russian forces are to withdraw. The southern command unit repeated claims that Russia was laying land mines and laying roadblocks, apparently in an attempt to block Ukrainian forces seeking to advance and retake the area. Mikhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine’s president, said the Russians wanted to “turn Kherson into a ‘city of death’” as they withdrew. While efforts to recapture Kherson may be fraught with risk, analysts say Ukrainian forces have waged a well-fought campaign to recapture Kherson from Russia. “The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the direction of Kherson since August — a coordinated interception campaign to force Russian forces to withdraw from the Dnipro without requiring major Ukrainian ground offensives — has likely succeeded,” analysts at the Institute for the Study of War said. A Ukrainian tank driver near the Kherson front in Ukraine on November 9, 2022. Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images The institute said Ukrainian forces had targeted Russian units, military assets and logistics throughout the Kherson region “to render untenable the ongoing Russian positions on the west bank without having to conduct large-scale and costly maneuvers to land release”. “Ukrainian troops launched sustained attacks on bridges along the Dnipro River and targeted supply centers and ammunition depots on the east bank…which degraded the ability of Russian forces to supply the group on the west bank; Ukrainian forces combined these strikes with judicious and successful ground attacks on key locations such as Davydiv Brid. This campaign has borne fruit,” he said.
